1. Executive Summary — The Bottom Line
- Hormuz Crisis Escalates Shipping Costs: The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal traffic following the US–Iran military confrontation. Iran has announced a new Persian Gulf Strait Authority requiring vessels to seek permission to transit, driving ocean and air freight rates sharply higher globally. Maersk CEO estimates the carrier faces $500M per month in additional fuel costs, which are being passed on to shippers.
- Box Rates Surge Double Digits: According to Lloyd’s List (May 15, 2026), container rates rose sharply this week, driven by elevated fuel surcharges and strong demand. The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) shows Asia–N. Europe rates up 10% in a single week to $2,850/FEU, while Asia–US West Coast rates increased 4%.
- Section 122 Tariff Ruling Adds Trade Uncertainty: The US Court of International Trade has ruled President Trump’s use of Section 122 tariffs invalid. While currently limited to specific plaintiffs, this opens the door to widespread tariff refund claims and creates new uncertainty in US–China trade flows — a critical variable for global forwarding volumes in H2 2026.
2. Freight Rate & Capacity Watch
Ocean Freight (Freightos Baltic Index — Week of May 12, 2026)
- Asia – US West Coast (FBX01): +4% week-on-week
- Asia – US East Coast (FBX03): +1% week-on-week
- Asia – N. Europe (FBX11): +10% week-on-week to $2,850/FEU
- Asia – Mediterranean (FBX13): -5% (some easing on this lane)
Air Freight (Freightos Air Index)
- China – N. America: Stable at $5.47/kg — back to pre-war levels
- China – N. Europe: -3%, at $5.16/kg, but still 50% above pre-war levels
- S. Asia – Europe: $4.66/kg, a level 80% higher than February
- SEA – Europe: Up double digits to a new high of $5.74/kg
- Overall air cargo rates remain approximately 30% higher than before the conflict year-on-year. Elevated jet fuel prices are the primary driver, with some Asia–Europe shippers shifting to ocean-air hybrid routes via US West Coast ports to reduce costs.
Capacity Alerts
Carriers are stepping up blank sailings on east-west services ahead of planned mid-month rate increases, with reports of space getting tight and containers being rolled. This is a deliberate capacity management play to support spot rates during what remains a low-demand period, with carriers hoping peak season demand materialises to sustain prices in H2. The NRF projects June US ocean import arrivals to be 2% lower than May, with July up 4% month-on-month but still 8% below last year’s tariff-driven peak — suggesting a muted transpacific peak season.
TAAF 360 Action: Monitor blank sailing announcements closely on Asia–Gulf and Asia–Europe lanes. Consider pre-booking capacity 3–4 weeks ahead as carriers tighten space to justify rate increases.
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